Vaccine Combining Multiple Class I Peptides and Montanide ISA 51VG With Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 Antibody Nivolumab or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab For Patients With Resected Stages IIIC/ IV Melanoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-01-06, after 2010-08-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 45.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellmelanomaradiationhlacancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttopicalhormonedrug -
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 46 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 45.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab, spartalizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Multiple Class I Peptides & Montanide ISA 51 VG w Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 ab BMS936558 NCT01176461 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study of the Safety/Efficacy of Combination Checkpoint Blockade + External Beam Radiotherapy in Stage IV Melanoma NCT02659540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- Selective HDAC6 Inhibitor ACY-241 in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab NCT02935790 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Study of Combination of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Melanoma NCT02970981 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.