Multiple Class I Peptides & Montanide ISA 51 VG w Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 ab BMS936558

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 45.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hlacellchemotherapymelanomaleast weeks
  Phrases that lowered it: positiveadministrationdrugvirushepatitis
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vaccine Combining Multiple Class I Peptides and Montanide ISA 51VG With Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 Antibody Nivolumab or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab For Patients With Resected Stages IIIC/ IV Melanoma NCT01176474 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study of the Safety/Efficacy of Combination Checkpoint Blockade + External Beam Radiotherapy in Stage IV Melanoma NCT02659540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study of the Selective HDAC Inhibitor Mocetinostat in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma NCT03565406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• A Study of GC101 TIL in Advanced Melanoma (BZ) NCT06120712 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Safety & Efficacy of Intra-Tumoral Ipilimumab in Combination With Intra-venous Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02857569 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.