Study of Combination of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Melanoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-02, after 2016-11-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellradiationcancerbrainevidence of
Phrases that lowered it: administrationmgweeks beforeasthmadrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8336 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 184 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 24.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 91 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16879 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8336 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pilot Study of the Safety/Efficacy of Combination Checkpoint Blockade + External Beam Radiotherapy in Stage IV Melanoma NCT02659540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Nivo/Ipi Combination Therapy in Symptomatic Brain Metastases NCT02621515 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Leptomeningeal Metastases NCT02939300 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Tract Cancer Patients NCT02866383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab vs. Double Placebo for Stage IV Melanoma w. NED NCT02523313 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.