Immunotherapy With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab vs. Double Placebo for Stage IV Melanoma w. NED

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationtumorpatientstagemelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsindexadministrationdrugdisorders
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7742 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study of the Safety/Efficacy of Combination Checkpoint Blockade + External Beam Radiotherapy in Stage IV Melanoma NCT02659540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Melanoma NCT02970981 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab vs Ipilimumab Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma Who Have Progressed or Relapsed on PD-1 Inhibitor Therapy NCT02731729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Study of Adjuvant Immunotherapy With EVX-02 and Anti-PD-1 NCT04455503 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Stage IIB-IIC Melanoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT03405155 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.