Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Stage IIB-IIC Melanoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerpatientcellstage
  Phrases that lowered it: cd4cutaneousaminotransferasehivinfluenza
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9729 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Adjuvant Immunotherapy With EVX-02 and Anti-PD-1 NCT04455503 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Checkpoint Blockade NCT02519322 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Testing Treatment With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab Compared to Treatment With Ipilimumab Alone in Advanced Melanoma NCT03033576 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study of ANV419 Alone or in Combination With Approved Treatment in Patients With Cutaneous Melanoma (OMNIA-1). NCT05578872 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.