Testing Treatment With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab Compared to Treatment With Ipilimumab Alone in Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients muststagecellcancermelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: contraceptiveaminotransferaseintendedmethodsdaily
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12847 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1127 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 28882 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Stage IIB-IIC Melanoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT03405155 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Study of Adjuvant Immunotherapy With EVX-02 and Anti-PD-1 NCT04455503 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Stage III-IV Unresectable Metastatic Melanoma NCT04967196 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• ALT-803 Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Pretreated, Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02523469 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab With or Without Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Persistent or Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal, or Fallopian Tube Cancer NCT02498600 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.