Study to Assess MEDI -578 in Patients With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-09-30, after 2010-02-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 377 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 771 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebomonoclonaltolerabilityassessascending
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritispatientsto evaluateevaluate the -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 771 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 377 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of MEDI7352 in Painful Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02508155 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of PG110 in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis Pain NCT00941746 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of MIV-711 in Osteoarthritis Patients NCT02705625 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI7352 in Participants With Painful Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT04675034 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Phase Ib/II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of LG00034053 in Patients With Knee OA NCT05237752 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.