Safety of Lenalidomide and Markers for Disease Progression in Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Low- or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) With Isolated del5q

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ironstudy druganemiaof studyeffective
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsinvestigatormaletubalsafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 44.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9397 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide Combined to Azacitidine in Intermediate-2 or High Risk MDS With Del 5q NCT01088373 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide in Combination With Cyclosporine A in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT00840827 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study of REVLIMID (Lenalidomide) Versus Placebo in Patients With Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01243476 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Prednisone in Low and Int-1 Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Non 5q MDS NCT01133275 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide Maintenance Therapy in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) or Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) NCT00720850 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.