Study of REVLIMID (Lenalidomide) Versus Placebo in Patients With Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 27% of the time (33 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcarcinomacellpatients mustbreast
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatorvisitdaydisorderthe study
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 43.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8846 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide Combined to Azacitidine in Intermediate-2 or High Risk MDS With Del 5q NCT01088373 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Safety of Lenalidomide and Markers for Disease Progression in Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Low- or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) With Isolated del5q NCT01081431 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Repeat-dose Study of Lenalidomide (Revlimid ®) Plus Dexamethasone in Patients With Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT01116193 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone in Combination With Continuous Oral Cyclophosphamide Compared to Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone Combined With Single Cyclophosphamide Doses IV in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01019174 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide for Myelodysplastic Syndrome Refractory to Hypomethylating Agents NCT01246076 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.