Adenosine 2A Agonist Lexiscan in Children and Adults With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancercellsmetastaticcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvolunteersasthmaparticipantopen
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 98 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of FTX-6058 NCT04586985 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Voxelotor in Patients With SCD NCT04247594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AG-946 in Healthy Volunteers and in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04536792 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetic (PK) Study of HBI-002, an Oral Carbon Monoxide (CO) Therapeutic, in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) NCT06144749 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study of PF-07209326 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04255875 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.