A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AG-946 in Healthy Volunteers and in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (117 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: participantcellhas historydisorderascending
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersscreeningeffecthcv
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of FTX-6058 NCT04586985 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Adenosine 2A Agonist Lexiscan in Children and Adults With Sickle Cell Disease NCT01085201 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, And Pharmacodynamics Study Of PF-04447943, Co-Administered With And Without Hydroxyurea, In Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT02114203 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• SJ733 Induced Blood Stage Malaria Challenge Study NCT02867059 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.