An Australian Study of Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycellrefractoryagentscells
  Phrases that lowered it: 14 daysefficacyevaluatedays priorcontraceptive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I Study Evaluating Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stromal for Crohn's Disease. NCT01659762 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease NCT02150551 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for the Treatment of Severe or Refractory Inflammatory and/or Autoimmune Disorders NCT01540292 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Pediatric MSC-AFP Sub-study for Crohn's Fistula NCT03449069 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Treatment of Perianal Fistulizing Crohn's Disease NCT04519671 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.