Vitamin C for Prophylaxis of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation in On-pump Cardiac Surgery Procedures

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinedetermine whethercontainthe purposepurpose of
  Phrases that lowered it: criteria patientsmg dlresponsecreatininepump
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 15 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7706 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vitamin C in Cardiac Surgery Patients NCT03123107 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Prophylaxis to Reduce Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Cardiac Surgery NCT00953212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation Following Valvular Replacement With Cardiopulmonary Bypass: a Prospective, Randomized Clinical Study Comparing Oral Caffeine With Placebo NCT01999829 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Atrovastatin for Preventing Atrial Fibrillation Following Open Cardiac Valve Repair NCT02084069 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban vs. Warfarin for Post Cardiac Surgery Atrial Fibrillation NCT03702582 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.