Rivaroxaban vs. Warfarin for Post Cardiac Surgery Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cardiacfibrillationatrialwomen ofstroke
  Phrases that lowered it: oralmalefemalestudysafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 851 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34394 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Apixaban Versus Warfarin for the Management of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation NCT02889562 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Fondaparinux in Patients With a Heart Rhythm Disturbance Who Undergo Restoration of Normal Heart Rhythm NCT00911300 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Strategy of Continued Versus Interrupted Novel Oral Anti-coagulant at Time of Device Surgery in Patients With Moderate to High Risk of Arterial Thromboembolic Events NCT01675076 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Prophylaxis to Reduce Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Cardiac Surgery NCT00953212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Effectiveness of Bridging Anticoagulation for Surgery (The BRIDGE Study) NCT00786474 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.