Apixaban Versus Warfarin for the Management of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsrandomizationserumtherapycare
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialdrugmoderateperiodas determined
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 57.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 30059 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Rivaroxaban vs. Warfarin for Post Cardiac Surgery Atrial Fibrillation NCT03702582 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Prophylaxis to Reduce Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Cardiac Surgery NCT00953212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Dabigatran Versus Warfarin After Mitral and/or Aortic Bioprosthesis Replacement and Atrial Fibrillation Postoperatively NCT01868243 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Rate Control Versus Rhythm Control For Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation NCT02132767 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study Exploring Two Strategies of Rivaroxaban (JNJ39039039; BAY-59-7939) and One of Oral Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Undergo Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT01830543 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.