Temsirolimus Plus Neratinib for Patients With Metastatic HER2-Amplified or Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticher2breast cancerto determinetrastuzumab
  Phrases that lowered it: disordersendocrinepatientstrialbleeding
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase1 of Neratinib+Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab, Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors/HER2+ NCT02593708 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Incidence and Severity of Diarrhea in Patients With HER2 Positive Breast Cancer Treated With Trastuzumab and Neratinib NCT03094052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Combination of Weekly Paclitaxel With Neratinib and Trastuzumab in Women With Metastatic HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01423123 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Neratinib With and Without Temsirolimus for Patients With HER2 Activating Mutations in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01827267 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Capecitabine, Cyclophosphamide, Lapatinib Ditosylate, and Trastuzumab in Treating Patients With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01873833 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.