Evaluation of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)Candidate Vaccines
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-03-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priortherapysafemethodadjuvant
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzaimmunogenicityvaccinationvaccines -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 10 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Different Formulations of an Adjuvanted A/H1N1 Pandemic Vaccine in Healthy Adults and the Elderly NCT00952276 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study of Different Formulations of an A/H1N1 Pandemic Vaccine in Healthy Adults and the Elderly NCT00953524 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of a Pandemic Avian Influenza Vaccine in Adults NCT02335164 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study of Different Formulations of an Intramuscular A/H5N1 Inactivated, Split Virion Influenza Adjuvanted Vaccine NCT00664417 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of Two Doses of Adjuvanted and Non-adjuvanted Swine Origin A/H1N1 Monovalent Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Subjects 18 or More Years of Age NCT00970177 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.