A Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of a Pandemic Avian Influenza Vaccine in Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-01, after 2015-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: women ofincreaseunless18 yearsshown
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzaimmunogenicityreceiptpandemic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 9 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate Safety, Immunogenicity, and Lot-to-Lot Consistency of H5N1 Subunit Influenza Virus Vaccine in Healthy Adult Subjects ≥18 Years of Age NCT02839330 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)Candidate Vaccines NCT01111968 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Group Study of the Safety of and Immune Response to a Single Dose of Bird Flu Vaccine (H7N3) in Healthy Adults NCT00853255 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Two Doses of H5N1 Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT01776541 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT01640691 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.