Methylnaltrexone vs Erythromycin for Facilitating Gastric Emptying Time in Critically Ill Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hemodialysisbowelhoursgi24
  Phrases that lowered it: gastricdrugscriteria patientsabsorptiondrug abuse
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Effect of Prucalopride on Gastric Emptying in Intensive Care Unit Patients NCT05496179 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics (PK) Study of Ulimorelin in Patients With Enteral Feeding Intolerance (EFI): The PROMOTE Trial NCT02784392 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Intravenous Erythromycin on Gastric Emptying in Non-fasted Patients Before Emergency Total Anesthesia NCT00827216 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Single Doses of GSK962040 in Critically Ill Patients With Enteral Feed Intolerance NCT01039805 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of a Single Dose of Intravenous TD-8954 Compared With Metoclopramide in Critically Ill Patients With Enteral Feeding Intolerance NCT01953081 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.