The Effect of Prucalopride on Gastric Emptying in Intensive Care Unit Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-15, after 2022-08-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: headequalicu18critically
Phrases that lowered it: uppersafety ofgastricaspartatetransaminase -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 421 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 421 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 279 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 76544 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5431 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metoclopramide, prucalopride
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Methylnaltrexone vs Erythromycin for Facilitating Gastric Emptying Time in Critically Ill Patients NCT01117376 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Evaluating Neostigmine Effect on Reducing Gastric Residual Volume as Compared With Metoclopramide and Ondansetron NCT05342818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics (PK) Study of Ulimorelin in Patients With Enteral Feeding Intolerance (EFI): The PROMOTE Trial NCT02784392 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Pectin Start Early Enteral Nutritional Support in Critically Ill Patients NCT02379624 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Prucalopride for Postoperative Ileus in Patients Undergoing Gastrointestinal Surgery NCT02004652 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.