Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics of Sotrastaurin-tacrolimus vs. Mycophenolic Acid-tacrolimus in de Novo Liver Transplant Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hcvkidneyhoursrecipientsassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whocytochromep450inducersinhibitors
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 218 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 241 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Sotrastaurin Combined With Tacrolimus vs. a Mycophenolic Acid-tacrolimus Regimen in Renal Transplant Patients NCT01064791 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• CNI-free de Novo Protocol in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation With Renal Impairment NCT00604357 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Concentration-controlled Everolimus to Eliminate or to Reduce Tacrolimus Compared to Tacrolimus in de Novo Liver Transplant Recipients NCT00622869 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of TCD601 in de Novo Renal Transplant Recipients NCT05669001 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Pharmacodynamic (PD) of an Anti-CD40 Monoclonal Antibody, CFZ533, in Liver Transplant Recipients With Additional 12-month Follow-up and Long-term Extension NCT03781414 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.