Study of Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Pharmacodynamic (PD) of an Anti-CD40 Monoclonal Antibody, CFZ533, in Liver Transplant Recipients With Additional 12-month Follow-up and Long-term Extension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donortransplantationtransplantcelltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningperiodpharmacokineticshcvpharmacokinetic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1260 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12559 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 74291 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Concentration-controlled Everolimus to Eliminate or to Reduce Tacrolimus Compared to Tacrolimus in de Novo Liver Transplant Recipients NCT00622869 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Sofosbuvir With Ribavirin Administered Pre-Transplant in Preventing Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Recurrence Post-Transplant NCT01559844 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Pharmacodynamic (PD) of an Anti-CD40 Monoclonal Antibody, CFZ533, in Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT03663335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Delayed Infusion of DCreg in Living Donor Liver Transplantation NCT04208919 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Early Treatment With Sofosbuvir (SOF) and Ledipasvir (LDV) to Prevent HCV Recurrence After Liver Transplantation (OLT) NCT02478229 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.