Delayed Infusion of DCreg in Living Donor Liver Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantdonorrecipientsbiopsyenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssinglefemalehealthmale
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DCreg in Living Donor Liver Transplantation NCT03164265 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Donor Alloantigen Reactive Tregs (darTregs) for Calcineurin Inhibitor (CNI) Reduction NCT02474199 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Liver Transplantation With Tregs at MGH NCT03577431 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Liver Transplantation With Tregs at UCSF NCT03654040 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Study of Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Pharmacodynamic (PD) of an Anti-CD40 Monoclonal Antibody, CFZ533, in Liver Transplant Recipients With Additional 12-month Follow-up and Long-term Extension NCT03781414 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.