A Double-blind, Escalating Dose, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Study Assessing PK, Safety, Tolerability in Non-ambulant DMD Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 435 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1211 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: of studymonthsuseadministrationtreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticssubjectssinglesafetytolerability
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Doubleblind Exploratory Study of GSK2402968 in Ambulant Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01153932 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01254019 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01480245 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Assess Two Doses of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT01462292 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Study of an Investigational Drug, RO7239361 (BMS-986089), in Ambulatory Boys With DMD NCT02515669 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.