Open Label Study of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetyextensionthe longtolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: liverefficacyhistoryexperiencedinflammatory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 428 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1474 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 5 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Doubleblind Exploratory Study of GSK2402968 in Ambulant Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01153932 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Double-blind, Escalating Dose, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Study Assessing PK, Safety, Tolerability in Non-ambulant DMD Subjects NCT01128855 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01254019 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Long-term Extension Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03038399 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability & Efficacy of Long-term Administration of Drisapersen in US & Canadian Subjects NCT01803412 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.