First Line Study of Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin in Metastatic Gastric or Gastroesophageal Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 35% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-05-18, after 2010-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationchemotherapypatients mustbraincancer
Phrases that lowered it: gastricpatients whodisorderoxaliplatinweeks before -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 29.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22338 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4859 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, capecitabine oxaliplatin, irinotecan, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Docetaxel + Oxaliplatin + S-1 in Potentially Operable Gastric or Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT00816543 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Surgical Resection Plus Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Oligometastatic Stage IV Gastric Cancer NCT03042169 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Potentially Resectable Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction NCT01962246 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Epirubicin, Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil (EOF) in Cancer of the Esophagus, Gastroesophageal Junction, or Stomach NCT00601705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- S-1+Oxaliplatin vs.S-1+Cisplatin First-line Treatment of Advanced or Recurrent Non-intestinal Type Gastric Adenocarcinoma Patients NCT01824459 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.