Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Potentially Resectable Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-31, after 2012-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscancerradiotherapyconcurrentstage
Phrases that lowered it: typedisordertrialrandomizedwith history -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4330 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 23549 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4330 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- First Line Study of Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin in Metastatic Gastric or Gastroesophageal Cancer. NCT01129310 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Docetaxel + Oxaliplatin + S-1 in Potentially Operable Gastric or Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT00816543 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Epirubicin, Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil (EOF) in Cancer of the Esophagus, Gastroesophageal Junction, or Stomach NCT00601705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- 5-FU, Leucovorin, Oxaliplatin and Docetaxel (FLOT) Versus Epirubicin, Cisplatin and 5-FU (ECF) in Patients With Locally Advanced, Resectable Gastric Cancer NCT01216644 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Efficiency of XELOX Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Gastric Cancer NCT01665274 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.