HIV-1 Peptide Immunisation of Individuals in West Africa to Prevent Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartpurposeplacebocellschronic
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateand safetydiseaseshealthyevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Immunogenicity of ChAdV63.HIVconsv and MVA.HIVconsv Candidate HIV-1 Vaccines in Recently HIV-1 Infected Individuals NCT01712425 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy of a Heterologous Prime/Boost Vaccine Regimen of Ad26.Mos4.HIV and Aluminum Phosphate-Adjuvanted Clade C gp140 in Preventing Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) -1 Infection in Women in Sub-Saharan Africa NCT03060629 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• Immunization With HIV-1 Peptides in Adjuvant for Treatment of Patients With Chronic HIV-infection NCT01009762 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity Study of a DNA Priming and MVA Boosting Strategy of HIV Vaccine NCT01407497 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of MVA.HIVconsv in HIV-1 Seropositive Adults on HAART NCT01024842 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.