A Study to Assess the Efficacy of a Heterologous Prime/Boost Vaccine Regimen of Ad26.Mos4.HIV and Aluminum Phosphate-Adjuvanted Clade C gp140 in Preventing Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) -1 Infection in Women in Sub-Saharan Africa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: willingness todeterminepregnancyregimenphosphate
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationvaccineshiv infectionvolunteers
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• HIV-1 Peptide Immunisation of Individuals in West Africa to Prevent Disease NCT01141205 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity Study of Different Vaccine Regimens of Trivalent Ad26.Mos.HIV or Tetravalent Ad26.Mos4.HIV Along With Clade C Glycoprotein (gp)140 in Healthy Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Uninfected Adults NCT02788045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of ChAdV63.HIVconsv and MVA.HIVconsv Candidate HIV-1 Vaccines in Recently HIV-1 Infected Individuals NCT01712425 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity Study of 2 Different Regimens of Tetravalent Ad26.Mos4.HIV Prime Followed by Boost With Tetravalent Ad26.Mos4.HIV Along With Either Clade C gp140 Plus Adjuvant OR With a Combination of Mosaic and Clade C gp140 Plus Adjuvant in Healthy HIV Uninfected Adults NCT02935686 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity Study of Different Vaccine Schedules With Ad26.Mos.HIV and Clade C Glycoprotein (gp)140 in Healthy Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Uninfected Adults NCT02685020 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.