QUILT-3.038: Active Immunotherapy CEA Vaccine in Patients With Malignancies Expressing CEA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatients mustvaccinetrastuzumabmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: colorectalpatientslinepancreatic cancerclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Standard of Care Alone or in Combination With Ad-CEA Vaccine and Avelumab in People With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer QUILT-2.004 NCT03050814 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• QUILT-3.040: ETBX-011 (Ad5 [E1-, E2b-]-CEA(6D)) Vaccine in Combination With ALT-803 (Super-agonist IL-15) in Subjects Having CEA-Expressing Cancer NCT03127098 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Immunotherapy With CEA(6D) VRP Vaccine (AVX701) in Patients With Stage III Colorectal Cancer NCT01890213 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT01376505 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.