Immunotherapy With CEA(6D) VRP Vaccine (AVX701) in Patients With Stage III Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyexcludedacutecanceror equal
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofhepatitisstudyhivinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 327 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Standard of Care Alone or in Combination With Ad-CEA Vaccine and Avelumab in People With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer QUILT-2.004 NCT03050814 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• QUILT-3.038: Active Immunotherapy CEA Vaccine in Patients With Malignancies Expressing CEA NCT01147965 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• PolyPEPI1018 Vaccine and CDx for the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (OBERTO) NCT03391232 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• QUILT-3.040: ETBX-011 (Ad5 [E1-, E2b-]-CEA(6D)) Vaccine in Combination With ALT-803 (Super-agonist IL-15) in Subjects Having CEA-Expressing Cancer NCT03127098 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• RP2/RP3 in Combination With Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab for the Treatment of Patients With CRC NCT05733611 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.