Phase II Tularemia Vaccine Comparison
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-01-31, after 2010-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartkidneyserumcelluln
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationimmunogenicityvolunteersreceipt -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 813 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 813 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 98 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Detoxified J5 Core Glycolipid/ Group B Meningococcal Outer Membrane Protein Vaccine for Gram-negative Bacterial Sepsis Administered With and Without Synthetic CPG Oligodeoxynucleotide 7909 Adjuvant NCT01164514 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Dose Escalation Trial of a Plague Vaccine, Flagellin/F1/V, in Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT01381744 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Cellular and Humoral Immune Response to Primary and Secondary Immunization With Subvirion H5N1 Vaccines NCT01086566 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Sanofi H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Administered at Different Dose Levels With and Without AS03 Adjuvant in Healthy Adult and Elderly Populations NCT00963157 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Lyophilized IMVAMUNE® (1x10^8 TCID50) Versus Liquid IMVAMUNE® (1x10^8 TCID50) Administered Subcutaneously and a Lower Dose Liquid IMVAMUNE® (2x10^7 TCID50) Administered Intradermally NCT00914732 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.