Trial of Exemestane +/- MM-121 in Postmenopausal Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive and/or Progesterone Receptor Positive Her2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerto determinemetastasesmetastaticadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: estrogenpostmenopausal womenmmprogesteronewomen with
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1738 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Exemestane and Cyclophosphamide for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01963481 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• QUILT-2.015: A Study of AMG 479 With Exemestane or Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00626106 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00810797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Enzalutamide in Combination With Exemestane in Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02007512 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.