Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-06-26, after 2008-12-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomasubjectsdefinedpriorstage
Phrases that lowered it: hormonelongmonths beforewomen withovarian -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 42 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1147 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 328 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- exemestane
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Exemestane and Cyclophosphamide for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01963481 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Exemestane With Sunitinib (SUTENT®) in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00905021 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Alternative Dosing of Exemestane Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Stage 0-II Estrogen Positive Breast Cancer NCT02598557 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- ER Reactivation Therapy for Breast Cancer NCT02188745 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy or Letrozole Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery NCT00963729 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.