ER Reactivation Therapy for Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-07-05, after 2016-03-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticlocallypriortumor
Phrases that lowered it: pulmonaryweekssingledosetherapies -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 118 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 35 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 61593 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11317 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, estradiol, exemestane, letrozole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase II Study Evaluating the Role of Androgen Receptors as Targets for Therapy of Pre-treated Post-menopausal Patients With ER/PgR-negative/AR-positive or ER and/or PgRpositive/ AR-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer (ARTT) NCT02000375 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- Endocrine Response in Women With Invasive Lobular Breast Cancer NCT02206984 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Exemestane and Cyclophosphamide for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01963481 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Estrogen for Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT01083641 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Versus Fulvestrant in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT03781063 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.