Estrogen for Triple Negative Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-03-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpatients mustto determineuncontrollednegative
Phrases that lowered it: estrogenhormonesystemicestradiolbleeding -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 106 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 49 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9619 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2006 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- estradiol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Estrogen in Postmenopausal Women With ER Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer After Failure of Sequential Endocrine Therapy NCT00661531 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- ER Reactivation Therapy for Breast Cancer NCT02188745 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00810797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.