Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancerlocallyadvancedmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmasspatients whoupperhormone
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 248 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Letrozole in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Ductal Carcinoma in Situ NCT01439711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Trial of Endocrine Against Locoregional Therapy First in Postmenopausal Women With Early Breast Cancer NCT00908531 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Endocrine Response in Women With Invasive Lobular Breast Cancer NCT02206984 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Goserelin and Letrozole or Anastrozole in Premenopausal Patients With Stage II-III Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01368263 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Chemotherapy or Letrozole Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery NCT00963729 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.