Goserelin and Letrozole or Anastrozole in Premenopausal Patients With Stage II-III Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-05-31, after 2011-09-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpatient mustradiationserumcreatinine
Phrases that lowered it: clinicalendocrinetrialpositiveweeks before -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 145 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 98 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13995 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2938 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, goserelin, letrozole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chemotherapy or Letrozole Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery NCT00963729 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy With or Without Trastuzumab After Surgery in Treating Women With Invasive Breast Cancer NCT01275677 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Letrozole and Palbociclib in Patients With Stage II-IIIB Breast Cancer, HR+, HER2 - NCT03819010 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients With the Anti-PD-l1 Antibody Avelumab NCT02926196 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.