Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients With the Anti-PD-l1 Antibody Avelumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacellchemotherapycancerstage
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerhcvor equalher2equal to
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Docetaxel and Cyclophosphamide Compared to Anthracycline-Based Chemotherapy in Treating Women With HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01547741 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy With or Without Trastuzumab After Surgery in Treating Women With Invasive Breast Cancer NCT01275677 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Randomized Controlled Trial of Genomically Directed Therapy in Patients With Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02101385 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Goserelin and Letrozole or Anastrozole in Premenopausal Patients With Stage II-III Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01368263 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab Versus Placebo in Combination With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Participants With High-risk, Estrogen Receptor-Positive (ER+), Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative (HER2-) Primary Breast Cancer NCT04109066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.