Study of Nivolumab Versus Placebo in Combination With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Participants With High-risk, Estrogen Receptor-Positive (ER+), Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative (HER2-) Primary Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 193865 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercarcinomatumorplacebosurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2and safetyefficacy ander
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 38297 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 683 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Neoadjuvant Nivolumab + Palbociclib + Anastrozole in Post-Menopausal Women and Men With Primary Breast Cancer NCT04075604 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients With the Anti-PD-l1 Antibody Avelumab NCT02926196 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab(Pbr)/Nab-Paclitaxel Followed by Pbr/Epirubicin/Cyclophosphamide in TNBC NCT03289819 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Omission of Surgery in Clinically Low-risk HER2positive Breast Cancer With High HER2 Addiction and a Complete Response Following Standard Anti-HER2-based Neoadjuvant Therapy NCT04578106 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Improving Pre-operative Systemic Therapy for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Amplified Breast Cancer NCT03894007 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.