Chemotherapy or Letrozole Before Surgery in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-03-31, after 2008-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagecarcinomauncontrolledconcurrentcancer
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancer20disorderserestrogen -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- not given (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21389 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5500 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, docetaxel, epirubicin, fluorouracil, letrozole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Goserelin and Letrozole or Anastrozole in Premenopausal Patients With Stage II-III Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01368263 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- TAC Versus TCX as Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Her2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01354522 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Exemestane in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00810797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Phase III Palbociclib With Endocrine Therapy vs. Capecitabine in HR+/HER2- MBC With Resistance to Aromatase Inhibitors NCT02028507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.