Trial of Endocrine Against Locoregional Therapy First in Postmenopausal Women With Early Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumortherapymetastaticcarcinomacancer
  Phrases that lowered it: hormonebreast cancerpostmenopausalindexinflammatory
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Allocation: randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Letrozole or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Older Postmenopausal Women Undergoing Surgery for Breast Cancer NCT00949598 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer NCT00871858 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Letrozole in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Ductal Carcinoma in Situ NCT01439711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Estrogen in Postmenopausal Women With ER Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer After Failure of Sequential Endocrine Therapy NCT00661531 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.