Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-02, after 2008-03-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerstagecarcinomaconcurrentmetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: hormoneclinical trialthe aimaim ofthe efficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3064 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1408 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, fulvestrant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Global Study to Compare the Effects of Fulvestrant and Arimidex in a Subset of Patients With Breast Cancer. NCT01602380 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Anti-Hormone Therapy (With Anastrazole and Fulvestrant) Before Surgery to Treat Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer. NCT00921115 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- QUILT-2.015: A Study of AMG 479 With Exemestane or Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00626106 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Trial of Endocrine Against Locoregional Therapy First in Postmenopausal Women With Early Breast Cancer NCT00908531 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Study of Faslodex With or Without Concomitant Arimidex Versus Exemestane Following Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors (NSAI) NCT00944918 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.