Anti-Hormone Therapy (With Anastrazole and Fulvestrant) Before Surgery to Treat Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 34% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-20, after 2009-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatients mustcellspriortherapy
Phrases that lowered it: ovarianendocrine25hysterectomyfemale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4894 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1619 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, fulvestrant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer NCT00871858 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Global Study to Compare the Effects of Fulvestrant and Arimidex in a Subset of Patients With Breast Cancer. NCT01602380 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant Plus Palbociclib in Operable Breast Cancer Responding to Fulvestrant NCT03447132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Endocrine Response in Women With Invasive Lobular Breast Cancer NCT02206984 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.