A Global Study to Compare the Effects of Fulvestrant and Arimidex in a Subset of Patients With Breast Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-16, after 2012-10-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticchemotherapyreceptorcell
Phrases that lowered it: compareovarianefficacy andrandomisedrandomisation -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 195 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 130 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1129 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 195 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11288 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1945 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, fulvestrant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Faslodex With or Without Concomitant Arimidex Versus Exemestane Following Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors (NSAI) NCT00944918 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer NCT00871858 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Comparing the Efficacy and Tolerability of Fulvestrant 500 mg Versus 250 mg in Advanced Breast Cancer Women NCT01300351 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Anti-Hormone Therapy (With Anastrazole and Fulvestrant) Before Surgery to Treat Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer. NCT00921115 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.