Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2randomizationadvancedwomen
  Phrases that lowered it: trialcombinationcyp3a4inducersstem cell
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1293 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 226 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 390 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Global Study to Compare the Effects of Fulvestrant and Arimidex in a Subset of Patients With Breast Cancer. NCT01602380 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Trial Evaluating Dovitinib Combined With Fulvestrant, in Postmenopausal Patients With HER2- and HR+ Breast Cancer NCT01528345 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment. NCT02437318 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study of Faslodex With or Without Concomitant Arimidex Versus Exemestane Following Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors (NSAI) NCT00944918 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of BKM120/Placebo With Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive HER2-negative Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Refractory to Aromatase Inhibitor NCT01610284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.