Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticprogressioncancerevidenceinhibitor
  Phrases that lowered it: relapsedpatientspatientproductscreening
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 242 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 794 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant or Letrozole, Based on Prior Endocrine Therapy, in Patients With PIK3CA Mutant, HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer Who Have Progressed on or After Prior Treatments NCT03056755 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Sapanisertib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02756364 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study of Taselisib + Fulvestrant Versus Placebo + Fulvestrant in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Disease Recurrence or Progression During or After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02340221 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Study of Combined Fulvestrant and Everolimus in Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Failure NCT00570921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.