A Study of Taselisib + Fulvestrant Versus Placebo + Fulvestrant in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Disease Recurrence or Progression During or After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelcancermetastaticlocally advancedplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andwithin weekssafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 809 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sapanisertib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02756364 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Study of GDC-0941 or GDC-0980 With Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant in Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer in Participants Resistant to Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT01437566 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment. NCT02437318 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ipatasertib Plus Palbociclib and Fulvestrant Versus Placebo Plus Palbociclib and Fulvestrant in Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2 Negative Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04060862 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Study of the Molecular Features of Postmenopausal Women With HR+ HER2-negative aBC on First-line Treatment With Ribociclib and Letrozole and, in Patients With a PIK3CA Mutation, on Second-line Treatment With Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant NCT03439046 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.