Study of GDC-0941 or GDC-0980 With Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant in Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer in Participants Resistant to Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastatic breasther2chemotherapywomen
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsexperiencedresistanteffect ofhistory
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 58 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of GDC-0810 Versus Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Resistant to Aromatase Inhibitor (AI) Therapy NCT02569801 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Study of GDC-0810 Single Agent or in Combination With Palbociclib and/or a Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Agonist in Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01823835 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study To Assess The Tolerability And Clinical Activity Of Gedatolisib In Combination With Palbociclib/Letrozole Or Palbociclib/Fulvestrant In Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02684032 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• GB491 Combined With Fulvestrant for HR+ HER2- Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05054751 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of Taselisib + Fulvestrant Versus Placebo + Fulvestrant in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Disease Recurrence or Progression During or After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02340221 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.