Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant or Letrozole, Based on Prior Endocrine Therapy, in Patients With PIK3CA Mutant, HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer Who Have Progressed on or After Prior Treatments

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerher2advancedmetastaticnegative
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andthe efficacysafety ofreceived
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1030 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45914 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment. NCT02437318 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• BYL719 Plus Letrozole or Exemestane for Patients With Hormone-Receptor Positive Locally-Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01870505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• BI 836845 in Estrogen Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02123823 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.